UK food and drink inflation could climb to 5.7% by December, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has warned, as cost pressures on manufacturers feed through to supermarket shelves. The trade body, which represents about a quarter of the sector, said prices were steeper than at any time in recent decades and revised its forecast from 4.9% in September to 5.7% by December.

Between January 2020 and July 2025, prices for food and non‑alcoholic drinks rose by 37%, compared with a 28% rise in overall prices. Sugar jumped 56%, whole milk 46%, and cheese 31%, according to the FDF’s analysis. The federation said UK food inflation has run higher than in France, Germany and Spain in recent months, pointing to domestic policies such as a higher employer national insurance contribution and a new packaging tax weighing on the sector.

Liliana Danila, the FDF’s lead economist, said: “Looking at the longer-term picture, today’s prices are steeper than anything in recent decades.” She added that spikes in energy and raw ingredient prices had stabilised, and inflation was now being “fuelled by the financial impact of domestic policies, now trickling down to supermarket shelves.” Karen Betts, the FDF chief executive, said: “The costs are such that companies can no longer absorb them and are having to pass at least some of them on to consumers.” She urged the Government not to add to the regulatory burden as the autumn Budget is prepared, and called for measures to attract investment, boost productivity and skills, and grow exports to help counter inflation and build resilience in UK food and drink manufacturing. The Government was contacted for comment.