GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index for September shows a fall in overall confidence as expectations for the general economy weaken. The index dropped two points to minus 19, with all components lower than in August.

Expectations for the general economy fell to minus 32, two points down from August and markedly weaker than the minus 11 recorded 15 months earlier. The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down one point to 4, though this remains seven points higher than a year ago. The Major Purchase Index, which tracks confidence in buying big-ticket items, declined three points to minus 16, yet it is seven points above last September.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The August 7th decrease in interest rates does not appear to have provided any obvious boost to the financial mood of consumers or drawn attention away from day-to-day cost issues. Both personal finance measures – past and future – are lower, while our major purchases measure has dropped three points to minus 16. Even more striking is an eight-point fall in saving intentions. Looking at the economy, sentiment is sliding sharply: in June 2024 our forward-looking measure stood at minus 11, but just 15 months later it has slumped to minus 32. Perceptions of the past year remain weak too, down three from last month to minus 45. With tax rises expected in the November budget, the risk is that confidence inevitably falls, just like the autumn leaves.”